Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 0.016233 0.018385 0.020734 0.023492 0.026645 0.030141 0.034319
2024-10-27 0.012275 0.015056 0.018359 0.022583 0.027861 0.034260 0.042646
2024-11-03 0.010818 0.013999 0.017997 0.023417 0.030614 0.039900 0.052881
2024-11-10 0.009723 0.013141 0.017641 0.024042 0.032981 0.045124 0.063046
2024-11-17 0.008867 0.012442 0.017338 0.024598 0.035194 0.050255 0.073574
2024-11-24 0.007921 0.011480 0.016529 0.024290 0.036064 0.053483 0.081624
2024-12-01 0.007164 0.010693 0.015857 0.024065 0.036963 0.056759 0.090025
2024-12-08 0.006535 0.010019 0.015269 0.023871 0.037840 0.060023 0.098701
2024-12-15 0.006177 0.009718 0.015205 0.024463 0.039983 0.065465 0.111524
2024-12-22 0.005685 0.009155 0.014667 0.024220 0.040705 0.068604 0.120726
2024-12-29 0.005458 0.008995 0.014757 0.025015 0.043234 0.075029 0.136449
2025-01-05 0.004957 0.008334 0.013955 0.024196 0.042851 0.076285 0.142788
2025-01-12 0.004577 0.007855 0.013433 0.023842 0.043305 0.079169 0.152717
2025-01-19 0.004149 0.007258 0.012659 0.022964 0.042709 0.080052 0.158871
2025-01-26 0.004028 0.007193 0.012816 0.023809 0.045439 0.087532 0.179231
2025-02-02 0.003885 0.007075 0.012864 0.024445 0.047821 0.094568 0.199553
2025-02-09 0.003744 0.006946 0.012878 0.025012 0.050113 0.101654 0.220881
2025-02-16 0.003503 0.006609 0.012469 0.024698 0.050561 0.104949 0.234181
2025-02-23 0.003294 0.006316 0.012119 0.024469 0.051156 0.108605 0.248757
2025-03-02 0.003105 0.006049 0.011800 0.024271 0.051795 0.112413 0.264165
2025-03-09 0.003017 0.005974 0.011858 0.024874 0.054246 0.120522 0.291063
2025-03-16 0.002848 0.005724 0.011537 0.024627 0.054759 0.124242 0.307506
2025-03-23 0.002792 0.005702 0.011689 0.025436 0.057777 0.134154 0.341180